job destruction happens here and now while the job creation part lags

Historians Don't See the Future

When people express concerns about technology's impact on jobs, historians often shrug them off with a thesis that goes something like this:

"While technology destroys jobs in the short term, eventually, the new industries it brings create more jobs."

They are right; every technology breakthrough, from the Industrial Revolution to the Internet, has ultimately created more—and more fulfilling—jobs. And I don't think AI will be an exception.

But there's one big "but."

The job destruction happens here and now while the job creation part lags. And that lag can sometimes last more than a person's entire working lifespan.

In other words, there's a long period of painful adjustment.

Take a look at the drastic drop in farming jobs (green line) during the Industrial Revolution. And how many decades it took for manufacturing jobs (blue line) to catch up:

Note that this chart doesn't quite do what happened justice.

The 200-year timeframe may fool you into thinking it happened instantly, but the adjustment took more than 30 years.

That's almost three-fourths of the average worker's productive lifespan.

That means you are more likely to retire or kick the bucket before you can take advantage of those "more jobs."